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Tracy A. Lee

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Grand Prairie, TX 75050
Tel: (972) 602-1478
Fax: (972) 660-2845
tlee@firstexind.com

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News from the Import Industry

February 16, 2010

China's stainless steel capacity seen at 20 mil mt/year end 2010

China's stainless steel capacity is expected to exceed 20 million mt/year
by end 2010, up from 15 million mt/year currently, Beijing Antaike
Development, the state-run metals information provider said Tuesday.

"More than 10 million mt/year of stainless steel facilities under
construction are expected to be completed late next year," an Antaike
source said.

The new plants will be located all over China, including Shanxi,
Zhejiang, Guangdong, Liaoning and Hainan provinces, as well as in Inner
Mongolia and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Regions, Antaike said.

Meanwhile, a commodity analyst with Shanghai-based metals consultancy,
CBI China, said the surplus stainless steel output, as a result of plants
coming on line, will have to be sold in the overseas market as local demand
will not be able to absorb them.

However, industry experts said growing incomes in rural China as well the
government's Yuan 4 trillion ($584 billion) stimulus package could stimulate
future demand for stainless steel products.

Meanwhile, Antaike forecasts that 50% of stainless steel output in China
this year will be of the 300 series with a nickel content of 8-10.5% on
falling refined nickel prices this year.

The London Metal Exchange three-month official nickel offers have ranged
from $14,800-15,200/mt in mid-June, much lower than the average LME nickel
price of $21,104/mt in 2008.

Meanwhile, Antaike expects the share of 400 series stainless steel
products with a nickel content of less than or equal to 0.6% to dip in 2009 on
weaker demand from the local automobile sector.

"The 400 series is expected to account for 25% of China's stainless steel
output this year, down from 27% last year," the Antaike source said.

Antaike said the 200 series with a nickel content of 1-4% will account
for 25% of Chinese stainless steel output, up from 23% in 2008.

China produced 1.68 million mt of stainless steel during the first
quarter of this year, down 29% year on year, state statistics showed.

Chinese local stainless steel consumption in the first quarter of the
year was 1.7 million mt, down 6.9% year on year. Q1 stainless steel exports by
China were 913,000 mt, down 60% from the same period in 2008, customs figures
showed. Q1 stainless steel imports by China were 322,400 mt, down 24% year on
year.

Source: Hong Kong (Platts)--23Jun2009 -- Joshua Leung, newsdesk@platts.com

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